David Wissing has a good post on this. Just the facts more or less.
The way I look at this…. Great news for Ehrlich.
Ehrlich at 56% approval rating (hard to beat a sitting Gov. with ratings like that) but only 38% of support (O’Malley 46%)
I suggest that low support is because Ehrlich hasn’t defined O’Malley yet. He hasn’t even started.
Now this poll shows O’Malley leading by 8%. Previously O’Malley let by 15%. As Dave pointed out. In a previous Sun poll O’Malley was 48% and Ehrlich was 33%.
This spells huge trouble for O’Malley.
O’Malley is down 2 points. Ehrlich is up 5 points.
Why is this big trouble for O’Malley? Because O’Malley has been trying to define Ehrlich for 2 months and now we know it isn’t working. The exact opposite of what O’Malley has been trying to accomplish is happening (just like everything else he touches). O’Malley took him to court on the BGE deal, stopped Ehrlich from taking over troubled schools, he is getting hit over the head with UTech, crime statistics… Maybe a cynic out their believe that Ehrlich is behind all this bad news – but that is all it would be – cynical. The fact is O’Malley has too many chinks in his own armour to effect Ehrlich.
Another interesting note from the Washington Time:
“…the poll was conducted too soon after the selection of Mrs. Cox to gauge whether the governor received a bounce with women from the pick. However, Mr. O’Malley’s lead among female voters has decreased to 11 percentage points, from 21 points in November.”
O’Malley’s appeal to women voters has been highlighted as a key to O’Malley’s bid for Government House. If Kristen Cox begins to register positive numbers for Ehrlich then this important block of voters could swing the vote to Ehrlich.
The importance of Howard County in this election is not lost either…
“Baltimore County and Howard County are emerging as battlegrounds.”
Wait until the Guv starts to define O’Malley. Dave, you won’t have to worry. I will bet you next time I see you that Baltimore County will go Ehrlich.
Maybe a lot more of Duncan’s supporters have swung to Ehrlich than they did to O’Malley. If they were solid democrats then Ehrlich would not have closed the gap by 7 points.