Howard County Maryland Blog

Local Politics and Current Events

2007 Hurricane Season

Posted by David Keelan on Saturday, June 16, 2007

According to the web site “Stop Global Warming“:

Catastrophic Weather
Super powerful hurricanes, fueled by warmer ocean temperatures are the “smoking gun” of global warming. Since 1970, the number of category 4 and 5 events has jumped sharply. Human activities are adding an alarming amount of pollution to the earth’s atmosphere causing catastrophic shifts in weather patterns. These shifts are causing severe heat, floods and worse.

The 2006 Hurricane season was predicted to be one of the worst on record.

One in Six Americans Could be Directly Impacted by 2006 Hurricane Season

STATE COLLEGE, PA, May 15, 2006-The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, led by Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi, today released its 2006 hurricane season forecast. An active hurricane season appears imminent, which could have major repercussions for the U.S. economy and the one in six Americans who live on the Eastern Seaboard or along the western Gulf of Mexico.

Active Atlantic hurricane season in 2006, but fewer landfalls

The current record Atlantic cyclone year will be followed by yet another highly active season, though Americans can expect fewer major hurricanes to make landfall in 2006, top experts said.
A total of 17 tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, should form in the Atlantic basin in 2006, as compared with a record-setting 26 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes this year, said leading experts William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

The result was something much less catastrophic

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. This season was unusual in that no hurricanes made landfall in the United States of America. It started on June 1, 2006, and officially ended on November 30, 2006. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.

One system, Tropical Storm Zeta from the 2005 season, continued through early January, only the second time on record that had happened. Tropical Storm Alberto was responsible for 2 indirect deaths when it made landfall in Florida. Hurricane Ernesto caused heavy rainfall in Haiti, and directly killed at least 7 people in Haiti and the United States. Four more hurricanes formed after Ernesto, including the strongest storms of the season, Hurricanes Helene and Gordon. However, no tropical cyclones formed in the month of October, the first time this had happened since the 1994 season.

Following the intense activity of the 2005 season, forecasts predicted the 2006 season would be very active, though not as active as 2005. However, in 2006, a rapidly-forming El Niño event, combined with the pervasive presence of the Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic and a steady presence of a robust secondary high related to the Azores high centered around Bermuda, contributed to a slow season and all tropical cyclone activity ceasing after October 2.

NOAA is issued the following 2007 forecast

NOAA’s 2007 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a very high 75% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very high likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, with 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 125% to 210% of the median. This prediction signifies an expected sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed in 2006.

An expected sharp increase from 2006 activity?  No doubt given the low activity in 2006 we may see an increase in 2007.  If that happens the hysterics will begin claiming definate proof of “climate change” causing havoc, but will conveniently forget the miserable 2006 forecast.  If the 2007 forecast is as miserable as the 2006 forecast the hysterics will claim that 2 years of faulty forecasts is no indication of the real effect of “climate change”. 

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3 Responses to “2007 Hurricane Season”

  1. “If the 2007 forecast is as miserable as the 2006 forecast the hysterics will claim that 2 years of faulty forecasts is no indication of the real effect of “climate change”.”

    Actually, my guess is they would claim the lack of hurricanes is directly due to global warming climate change. We are getting the point in the debate that no matter what happens weatherwise on the planet…it is the result of global warming climate change.

  2. Freemarket said

    There are many variables that affect hurricanes, global warming being only one. To look at one year of hurricane activity in a bubble and dismiss the scientific agreement about changes in our environment is foolhardy. Besides, 2006 has some terrible storms. In 2006, Australia was hit by several strong cyclones, including Cyclone Monica, the strongest cyclone ever measured (stronger than Katrina). Also, scientists used to think that it was not possible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic, but in 2004 a hurricane landed in Brazil. Don’t you find that unusual?

    It is important to look at other evidence besides hurricanes. During the past 25 years, 20 of those have been the hottest recorded since the civil war. What is happening to the glaciers in Glacier National Park? Scientists don’t expect there to be any left in 20 years. Buildings and trees located on permafrost are toppling over as the permafrost thaws. The permafrost has been frozen for centuries, but now it is unfreezing. Ice shelves in Antarctica are breaking up. Are you willing to dismiss this?

    You can continue to play scientist and rationalize away concerns about global warming, but the truth is that some disturbing things are happening to our environment. There is a scientific consensus about this, and the scientists know that humans are causing the chemical changes to our atmosphere. I would love to put my head in the sand and pretend everything is great, but there is cause for concern. As Mark Twain said, “Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.”

  3. Truth be told. I don’t dismiss any of it and I watch these events and wonder, “What are we doing to our planet.” Then I think, there are too many unknown variables. Then I get a little peeved at people making dire predictions and sending people into hysterics because I don’t think we know what is going on. Some people might think they know it and are convinced. I am not and so are a lot of other people. Thankfully our society is such that their will be a meeting of minds.
    Some of the things they find in permafrost, such as wooly mammoths, indicate that the wooly mammoth was there long before the permafrost was there. Does that mean that the permafrost has a life cycle of its own? What was their befor the permafrost? Does it shrink and grow? Fact is we don’t know. Glaciers melt. We are not in an ice age any longer – others argue that it is solar activity acting on glaciers. What was the article about Kilimanjaro recently. Its melting ice cover was thought to be the result of global warming when they finally decided it was really solar activity.

    First from The Guardian Newspaper global warming scare
    <blockquote>The snows of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
    The white top of Africa’s highest mountain has become an icon, instantly recognisable, but Kilimanjaro’s snows are disappearing at an alarming rate. The 5,896m (19,340ft) mountain – its name, in the local Chagga tongue, means ‘that which cannot be conquered’ – is destined to lose all its snow within a decade, meteorologists predict. The great peak, which once glowed ‘unbelievably white in the sun’ according to Hemingway, will turn an uninspiring dirty brown, a victim of global warming caused by ever-increasing amounts of carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere. At present, 10,000 people a year take the hike up ‘Kili’; how the loss of the snow will affect this tourist trade is uncertain. Far more worrying is the plight of the local people, whose way of life is now under threat because of drought.</blockquote>

    A more recent explanation
    Kilimanjaro’s shrinking snow not sign of warming
    No one has enough experience with the interior of the antarctic to know what is going on. These meaurements are coming from the exterior and a few penninsulas along the antarctic coast. What is really happening in the antarctic? What does the interior of the antarctic tell us?
    South Atlantic Hurricanes are not impossible or unheard of. They are just few and far between. The one you talk about was more of a tropical storm. There was one in 1991 off the coast of Africa. NOAA won’t say impossible to these events – they say it is just simply rare.
    The reason I posted this is because of the “smoking gun” comment which I found to be silly. Hurricain activity may be unusual here and there but a pattern does not exist and these dire predictions about devestating hurricanes attributed to climate change that never materialize are coming from people trying to (as ungenerous a comment this is) hasten the end of the world – so it seems to me. In the end this post is mostly tongue in cheeck.
    I actually have one eye open and am watching this issue. I am not prepared to dismiss the idea of global warming and climate change but I am not prepared to embrace the hysteric and send the world into some economic melt down when we don’t know what is going on and what is causing it. The steps we are taking now are good and should be taken even if climate change were not part of the discussion. Are these steps good enough for the climate change believers – how would I know. But I think they are.
    Moving away from fossil fuels is good for the environment, our farming economy, and foreign entanglements. I am all for it. We can’t do it fast enough. Is it going to stop global warming? I don’t think anyone knows.
    So call it denial. Head in the sand syndrome. We are stupid and you are not. You are right and everyone else is wrong. Having a good dose of skepticism is simply denial of global warming. We have never been lied to before. The world’s scientists are never wrong – especially climatologists. I got it now. Pardon me and other skeptics for holding climate change believers feet to the fire. You should not have to be forced to make your case time and time again. It just isn’t fair to ask for more proof, more research, another opinion before setting the worlds economy on its ear. We should just take your word for it. Hmmm – where have I heard that before.

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