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November 2010 Aftermath

Posted by David Keelan on Thursday, November 4, 2010

Well, it is over – election day. Nationally the GOP did very well. It will be an interesting 2 years. I hope the House, Senate, and White House figure it out.

Locally? Larry Carson put it best “Status Quo”.  Absentee ballots still need to be counted.  There may be a couple changes but it is doubtful. I agree with Larry that it will likely impact the Board of Election candidates more than anyone. 

Will it have an impact on the District 1 race? Probably not but I will watch.

As to the Register of Wills? I think it will go Kay Hartleb’s way. Why? Same situation four years ago. Kay was slightly ahead at the end of the election. When absentee ballots were counted she took a very large lead over her opponent. I don’t see why that would change four years later.

All night long Kay was trailing Byron McFarlane. I didn’t think much of it because the number of polls reporting was very low. I admit that I did worry a little. But when the board of elections posted their update at 11:43PM Kay was leading and the report at 4:48PM yesterday solidified it.

Reports from Democratic Headquarters were that Byron MacFarlane thought he had it in the bag (he may still win) and celebrated a bit too early. Darn modern technology.  (This comes from a conversation between the reporters covering poll watching parties at the democratic and republican spots).

I wanted to address a letter that appeared in the Ho Co Times suggesting that the lawyers who were writing letters or otherwise supporting Kay in this election were doing so to influence the office of the Register of Wills. Really? Really?  Here is what the letter said:

“The incumbent has received 100 percent of her campaign contributions in Maryland from lawyers and law firms. In contrast, Mr. Macfarlane has not taken a single penny from practicing estate lawyers in Howard County… candidates take contributions from the very people who will bring clients before them for supposedly impartial treatment.”

Influence what? What is that office going to do for a lawyer other than be effecient and as perfect in everyway as possible? What was that writer suggesting – that Kay Hartleb was going to triple the size of the clients estate?   The Register of Wills is an administrator.  They don’t rezone property.  Also, the writer states;

“She and her supporters have claimed that her opponent, Democratic attorney Byron Macfarlane, has never practiced estate law, even though a quick look into his record proves otherwise.”

The records states he hasn’t and he admitted it in a public forum.  He said; “I have never been the attorney or record but I helped my family.”  Yeah?

Seriously – does that writer have any idea about the office of the Register of Wills (doesn’t sound like he knows more than Byron MacFarlane).  The simple fact is MacFarlane remains unqualified for the position and the lawyers who support Kay don’t want Howard County’s Register’s office to get sloppy, inefficient, slow, error ridden, etc.  Not that the office under MacFarlane would be like that but during a transition period with staff turn over it would be until he could right that ship.  It is natural and the best manager can’t avoid it.  Those attorneys supporting Kay don’t have time to deal with a freshman Register of Wills and made it clear in their support of Kay.

Posted in David Keelan, Democrats, Howard County, Republicans | 4 Comments »

Who is Jack Dawkins?

Posted by David Keelan on Monday, September 6, 2010

I hope Mr. Dawkins doesn’t mind me using his name or refering readers of this blog to his comments in reference to Mr. MacFarlane’s announcement that Mr. MacFarlane will be running for the Register of Wills.

Mr. Dawkins replied to Mr. MacFarlane’s announcement as follows:

I am an attorney and I practice estates and trusts law. We handle dozens of probate administration cases each year in Howard, Montgomery, and Anne Arundel County, as well as DC and Virginia. I am a life-long indepedent voter, but I almost always vote for a democrat in elections. Howard County has the best Register of Wills office around – PERIOD. I’ll be doing everything I can between now and this election to make sure people know what a great job Kay Hartleb does in this office.

http://www.explorehoward.com/news/65394/democrat-throws-hat-ring-register-wills/

Thank you Mr. Dawkins for such a ringing endorsement. Coming from one who works frequently with Kay Hartleb’s office (and many other Registers at that) this is a most welcome testiment. One may refer to other such testimonials on Kay Hartleb’s web site http://www.kayhartleb.com

Posted in David Keelan, Democrats, Howard County, Republicans | 1 Comment »

MacFarlane for Register of Wills but Where?

Posted by David Keelan on Monday, September 6, 2010

Raising money for a political campaign ain’t easy and it aint fun.  But it is a necessary function if one intends to win the office that one is running for.  To that end I thought I would review the fundraising results of Byron MacFarlane’s campaign for Register of Wills.

Frankly, I am just curious to learn how strong support for Mr. MacFarlane’s campaign is in Howard County and where it might be coming from.  Here is the breakdown:

27.5% of his support comes from organizations (not individuals).  The largest contribution(s) came from an organization based in Baltimore City (MacFarlane Yost, LLC).

8% of his support from individuals comes from out of state

42% of his support comes from the county (54% of that from Columbia).

In short, the vast majority of support for Mr. MacFarlane’s campaign comes from other than Howard County which really raises the question.  Who is supporting him and why?  If he can’t raise his money from Howard County who is he serving?

Total Contributions  $  13,472.16 Percent of all % HoCo
Individual  $    9,756.05 72.4%  
Organization  $    3,716.11 27.6%  
Out of State   $    1,850.08 13.7%  
Maryland  $  11,622.08 86.3%  
Non Howard County  $    9,170.15 68.1%  
Baltimore  $    4,121.91 30.6%  
Howard County  $    4,302.01 31.9%  
       
  Clarksville  $        170.00 1.3% 4%
  Columbia  $    2,318.29 17.2% 54%
  Dayton  $          50.00 0.4% 1%
  Elkridge  $          48.25 0.4% 1%
  Ellicott City  $        663.97 4.9% 15%
  Glenelg  $          50.00 0.4% 1%
  Glenwood  $          25.00 0.2% 1%
  West Friendship  $          25.00 0.2% 1%
  Woodbine  $          25.00 0.2% 1%
  Woodstock  $        926.50 6.9% 22%
       
Number of Contributions 138    
Contributions from HoCo 58 42.0%  
Contributions other 80 58.0%  

Posted in David Keelan, Democrats, Howard County | 2 Comments »

Headed to China

Posted by David Keelan on Monday, June 15, 2009

My MBA class is headed to China in August for a 10 day field study.

During this time we will be meeting with Chinese and American business people to learn how business is conducted in an “emerging market”.  I personally think China has emerged (for the most part) especially the two cities we are visiting, Beijing and Shanghai.

Anyway I set up a blog to discuss the trip, our preparations, our experiences while there, and review after the trip.

Feel free to visit: http://china2009.wordpress.com

Posted in David Keelan, General | 2 Comments »

The Roots of Sub-Prime

Posted by David Keelan on Sunday, October 5, 2008

What are the roots of the sub-prime mortgage mess?  While the democratic party and Barak Obama love to blame the GOP and Bush policies the fact is that the mess is built upon the manipulation of markets in order to promote affordable housing policies.  This was led by a few leading democrats who are today blaming the GOP for political gain.  They are hypocrites.  Create easy credit and easy money to promote an agenda this is what we get.

Affordable housing is a laudible goal.  Getting more families into homes that they own is worthwhile. Creating a market for artificially cheap mortgages for people that can’t afford them, watching them be foreclosed on and then demonizing everyone else for the problem you helped to create.  That is just BS.

Yet when challenged and as the truth emerges about these facts people go nuts (on both sides).

Republicans began warning about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a decade ago.   The Bush administration raised red flags as early as 2001 and even asked for more regulation and oversight in 2003.  Yet Barney and Nancy were raking in cash from Franny and Freddie

John McCain sponsored a bill warning about banking crisis in 2005… and every time the DEMOCRATS said there was no threat and shot down the bill.

Here is actual video footage of Barney Frank and other Dems during those years… showing they are lying now about who is to blame.

 

Posted in David Keelan, Democrats, Republicans | 10 Comments »

CO2 and Statistics

Posted by David Keelan on Monday, April 21, 2008

A reader and local scientists looked at Carbon Dioxide emissions and applied statistical systems to them, specifically the Correlation Coefficient.

Here are his findings:
Wednesday, April 9, 2008 at 12:23 pm

Statistics of Climate Change – I downloaded and reviewed data for carbon emissions, atmospheric carbon dioxide (not ice core data), global temperatures, sunspot number, and solar irradiance. Using Excel spreadsheet statistics functions, I came up with the following correlation results:

Comparison Correlation Coefficient

CO2 Emissions vs. Temp. 0.85
CO2 Emissions vs. Atm CO2 -0.04
Atm CO2 vs. Temp. 0.26
Solar Irradiation vs. Temp 0.80
Sunspot Number vs. Temp 0.29

Correlation Coefficients (CC) range from -1 to 1. A CC of -1 is the strongest inverse relationship, while a CC of 1 is the strongest direct relationship. A CC of 0 is the complete absence of a relationship. Anything is basically up to user discretion; however, my standard is anything above >0.75 or <-0.75 is a strong relationship. All other CC values are various degrees of a weak relationship.

As you can see, the CO2 Emissions most closely correlate to temperature. However, CO2 Emissions do not correlate to atmospheric CO2 measurements. Furthermore, atmospheric CO2 measurements do not correlate to temperature. This last fact is true for recent and geologic time scales. So why do CO2 Emissions correlate to temperature — coincidence. The industrial age coincides with the end of the “Little Ice Age” from the late 1600s to about 1850 (widely accepted event). As a result, temperatures have been increasing naturally before the industrial age and continued during it.

However, solar irradiation tracks very closely to temperature (CC = 0.80). A review of solar irradiation graphs vs temperature graphs clearly indicates that all temperture minima and maxima of since 1850 (time period for which I have data) have coincided with solar irradiation fluctuations. The evidence sufficiently clear that anyone logical person can see that solar irradiation affects temperature to a much higher degree than CO2 ever could. You can see this phenomenom in late 20th and early 21st Century temperatures because, as reported, temperatures have been decreasing since 1998. Solar irradiation level have likewise been decreaseing.

Posted in David Keelan, General, statistics | 2 Comments »

There’s Something Happening Here…

Posted by David Keelan on Monday, January 14, 2008

What it is ain’t exactly clear…

Maybe it is.  According to the Baltimore Sun “O’Malley’s approval rating plummets“.  Really?  “…only 35 percent of voters approve of the way he’s handled his job.”  The silver lining is that 48% of voters like him.  Well, of course that is important – isn’t it. 

O’Malley may be what he is but he isn’t stupid.  He raised taxes now so we would forget about it by 2010.  However;

O’Malley – and any legislator who voted for the package – will have their work cut out for them in the next two and a half years if they want to reverse such abysmal numbers, said Raabe, the pollster.

One must wonder what message is in here for the County Executive’s considering the same course of action.  O’Malley hadn’t finished his first term and he raised $1.3B in taxes.  Robey jacked up Howard County taxes by 30% the first year of his second term.  Raising taxes in the second year of a first term won’t be easily forgotten by voters who are now expressing tax fatigue in “The FEE State”.

But turning the tide won’t be easy, especially among many of the “working families” O’Malley has most aggressively courted. Among those with who do not have a college degree, O’Malley’s approval ratings dip into the 20s.

They sound very angry and they should be.

Posted in David Keelan, O'Malley | 2 Comments »

John McCain

Posted by David Keelan on Monday, January 14, 2008

Dave Wissing has pointed out that John McCain is surging in the polls in some of the most important upcoming primary states.  The New York Times is writing about it too; McCain Rises in Fluid G.O.P.  The NYT did a poll but they don’t really tell us why they think McCain is surging.

I haven’t settled on anyone as I write this and I admit I had written of McCain like most everyone else.  Then Bhutto was assasinated.  It was scary.  Such a volitale situation every where you turn.  As soon as I heard about Bhutto my mind wandered over to John McCain – I had to take a fresh look. 

I came to the conclusion that this is a crazy place we live in.  We need an experienced leader.  Everyone else can talk about “change” all they want but in this environment I want experience.  I want a secure future for my children. 

Forget about global warming, health insurance, high taxes, low taxes, deficits, immigration (legal and illegal), and imbalances – just for a moment set those aside.  They are important – just set them aside for a moment.

What is the number one constitutional responsibility of the Federal Government?  Provide for the national defense.  Even then as much as I respect the US Constitution lets set that aside for a moment too.

Who in the field today has a better chance to manage the chaos in the world on day one than anyone else.  McCain.  That has to be the President’s first priority because everything else won’t matter if the President doesn’t get that right first.

Bill Richardson, I still think he was the most experienced in the Democratic field.  Some felt he was really running for Vice President.  I would have voted for him for President (he dropped out of course!) and hope that Congress would balance him out domestically.  I won’t vote for Clinton.  I will take a harder look at Obama – but then we have the experience factor to consider – I am afraid he wants to be the Kumbaya President. 

I like Romney, Rudy and Fred.  But right now I guess I would have to say what I didn’t think I would say (I hope my father doesn’t read this) I think I am a McCain man.

Posted in David Keelan, Republican 08 Primary | 2 Comments »

Howard County Crime

Posted by David Keelan on Saturday, December 29, 2007

What was crime like in Howard County for 2007 compared to previous years?  It is can be hard to tell because we really do not know how statistics are reported.  For example, in Baltimore City if a crime victim is shot and taken to the hospital and dies their a couple of days later then that particular crime is not reported as a murder.  The accused will be charged with murder later but that kind of reporting really skews the statistics.  So I am told!  Fortunately, Howard County seems to be much more straight forward.

My point being I don’t know what Howard County’s policy is for reporting crime statistics except to say that they use the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program.  Even then I don’t know what the requirements are of the UCR.

FBI cautions agencies to report offenses not according to local or state statutes but according to those guidelines provided in the handbook. Most agencies make a good faith effort to comply with established guidelines.

I guess it is an honor system.  By all appearances the Howard County Police Department makes every effort to abide by the UCR.

With that said, the Howard County Police Department also makes crime statistics available on their web site.  It is worth reviewing.  They publish an annual report on budget, personnel, and crime statistics.  Additionally, they have an interactive crime map.  It is a very good service to the citizens of Howard County.

The interactive crime map allows a user to enter an address and get up to date crime information.  It will present a table of statistics compiled from the most recent year, then it allows you the option to see the table displayed graphically in a map.

This is great for community associations, people who want to move to a neighborhood or sell a home, community activists, etc.

Check it out.

Posted in David Keelan, Howard County | 2 Comments »

Outrageous

Posted by David Keelan on Friday, December 28, 2007

I found this link on the Drudge Report.

http://www.baltimorechronicle.com/2007/122407Lindorff.shtml

Can you believe this?  This guy looks at a map that shows the (supposed) destruction that would be brought upon the US if the Al Gore version of global warming were to occur.

What does he write about?  The tragedy?  No, he writes “Oh goody.  All the conservative Red States get wiped out!”.  Well Blue America they will have no place to go except to Blue States so make sure you keep your hand on the keys to the kingdom because we want to make sure they have not power left.  How pathetic must one be to not only think that way but write it down and publish it?

This guy has no idea what the US Constitution is.  He will pervert the Constitution to make the case to impeach George Bush.   Then he will pervert the Constitution to )#&# with people who he doesn’t agree with.  He has no respect for his fellow man.  I think he would give voting rights to an illegal immigrant but only if they voted the way he wanted them to vote.

He puts all of this in the context of “Global Warming”, which we all know is simply going to wipe out 1/2 the United States if not the world.  I may be wrong about “Global Warming” and perhaps Hayduke may convince me over a beer.  However, when I read what nuts like this have to say the whole concept just looses all credibility.

Posted in David Keelan, General | 6 Comments »